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英国《经济学人》1日报道，美国联邦储备委员会正认真研究是否可将Kalshi等预测市场数据用于利率决策和宏观经济判断。
报道称，Kalshi、Polymarket等美国点对点投注平台去年的交易规模由前一年的160亿美元增至500亿美元以上，增幅超过三倍。大部分交易属于体育博彩，但也包含与GDP、就业、通胀等经济指标相关的合约。
美联储的Anthony Diercks等研究人员今年2月评估了Kalshi数据能否补充调查、金融市场和内部经济模型。研究发现，在预测特定月份政策利率终点方面，Kalshi预测市场的表现优于利率期货和期权。不过，市场流动性偏薄、小额投注也可能推动价格波动，仍是需要解决的问题。
来源: 联合Infomax
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Key points
- 英国《经济学人》1日报道，美联储正研究是否可将Kalshi等预测市场数据作为利率与宏观经济判断的补充指标。
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