Read the Employment Situation report in this order: the nonfarm payroll change and its revisions to the prior two months, the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, the average workweek, and labour-force participation. Together they show hiring pace, slack and wage pressure.
Timing and structure
The BLS publishes The Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, usually on the first Friday of the month. It covers the prior month and combines two surveys: the household survey for the unemployment rate and the establishment survey for payrolls and earnings. Our household vs establishment guide explains why they sometimes disagree. The next release date is on our calendar.
Step 1: the payroll change, then the revisions
The first number most people see is the monthly change in total nonfarm payroll employment. Read it together with the revision line in the same paragraph: BLS revises the two previous months every release as more employer responses arrive. A strong headline with large downward revisions can mean the labour market is weaker than the headline suggests.
On our nonfarm payrolls page the latest two months are marked preliminary, and the three-, six- and twelve-month averages smooth out monthly noise. Averages matter because the monthly figure has a 90% confidence interval of roughly ±130,000 jobs.
Step 2: the unemployment rate
The unemployment rate is the share of the labour force without a job that is available and looked for work in the past four weeks. Changes of about 0.2 percentage point are needed to be statistically significant in one month. Look at the direction over three months rather than reacting to a 0.1 point move. Our unemployment page also computes a Sahm-style gap, a simple rule of thumb that compares the three-month average with its low over the past year.
Step 3: wages
Average hourly earnings for all private employees give a timely read on pay growth. Watch the monthly change and the 12-month change. Remember two caveats:
- Composition: if many low-wage jobs are lost, the average rises even though nobody got a raise. This happened in spring 2020.
- Inflation: nominal wage growth only means higher purchasing power if it beats inflation. See real vs nominal wages.
Step 4: hours
The average workweek for private employees is a quiet but useful signal. Employers often cut hours before cutting staff, and add hours before hiring. A drop of 0.1 or 0.2 hour across the whole private workforce is equivalent to a large number of jobs in total hours worked.
Step 5: participation and the employment-population ratio
The labour-force participation rate shows the share of the population aged 16 and over that is working or looking for work. The unemployment rate can fall for a bad reason (people stop looking and leave the labour force) or a good one (people find jobs). The employment-population ratio, especially for ages 25–54, avoids that ambiguity because it is not affected by whether non-workers are searching.
Step 6: broader slack measures
Table A-15 of the release lists U-1 through U-6. U-6 adds people working part time for economic reasons and marginally attached workers. A rising U-6 alongside a stable headline unemployment rate can signal growing underemployment.
Industry detail
Table B-1 breaks payrolls down by industry. A month driven by one sector (for example, government or health care) tells a different story from broad-based gains. The release text also notes strikes or weather effects that distorted the month.
Putting it together
| Signal | Stronger labour market | Weaker labour market |
|---|---|---|
| Payroll change (3-month average) | Rising or steady | Falling, revisions down |
| Unemployment rate | Stable or falling | Rising over several months |
| Average workweek | Stable or longer | Shorter |
| Wage growth | Firm | Slowing |
| Prime-age employment ratio | Rising | Falling |
No single number decides the story. The value of the release is in reading these together and over several months, which is how this desk presents them.
Frequently asked questions
- When is the jobs report released?
- The Employment Situation report is usually released on the first Friday of the month at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, covering the previous month. Some months shift by a week because of when the reference week falls.
- What is U-6?
- U-6 is the BLS's broadest measure of labour underutilisation. It adds marginally attached workers and people working part time for economic reasons to the unemployed, as a percentage of the labour force plus marginally attached workers.
- How many jobs does the economy need each month?
- There is no official number. The break-even pace depends on population growth and participation trends, which change over time, so estimates vary widely.